2024 Election Forecast
Live market odds for the US presidential election
Which party will win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
Democratic Party
51
%
Republican Party
49
%
Which party will win the US Presidency?
270 to win
GA,
16 votes
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Georgia
Democratic Party
44
%
Republican Party
56
%
Other
0.3
%

Trump On The Ballot🗳️

0.7%
Before January 1, 2024
0.8%
Between January 2-January 15, 2024
0.9%
Between January 16-February 1, 2024
5%
Between February 2- February 15, 2024
6%
Affirm the ruling of the lower Court
82%
Fully reverse the ruling
8%
Affirmed in part with condition that Donald Trump must be convicted first
4%
Other
18%
THE PRESIDENT IS NOT AN “OFFICER OF THE UNITED STATES”
21%
PRESIDENT TRUMP DID NOT “ENGAGE IN INSURRECTION”
81%
SECTION 3 SHOULD BE ENFORCED ONLY THROUGH CONGRESS’S CHOSEN METHODS OF ENFORCEMENT
43%
SECTION 3 CANNOT BE USED TO DENY PRESIDENT TRUMP ACCESS TO THE BALLOT
6%
It doesn’t—Trump is off the ballot
26%
President is not an Officer
67%
Section Three is not self-executing
20%
Jan 6 was not an insurrection

Super Tuesday🐘

Poll closing times:

  • Alabama: 7 p.m. CST

  • Alaska: 8 p.m. AKST

  • Arkansas: 7:30 p.m. CST

  • California 8 p.m. PST

  • Colorado: 7 p.m. MST

  • Iowa 8 p.m. CST

  • Maine 8 p.m. EST

  • Massachusetts 8 p.m. EST

  • Minnesota 8 p.m. CST

  • North Carolina 7:30 p.m. EST

  • Oklahoma 7 p.m. CST

  • Tennessee: Varies by county, but many polls close at 8 p.m. ET

  • Texas 7 p.m. CST

  • Utah: 8 p.m. MST

  • Vermont 7 p.m. EST

  • Virginia 7 p.m. EST

Swing States🗳️

61%
North Carolina (Presidency and Governorship)
38%
Arizona (Presidency and Senate)
37%
Wisconsin (Presidency and Senate)
32%
New Hampshire (Presidency and Governorship)
46%
Democratic Party
54%
Republican Party
0%
Other
68%
Democratic Party
30%
Republican Party
1.2%
Other
61%
Democratic Party
39%
Republican Party
0.2%
Other
71%
Democratic Party
29%
Republican Party
0.6%
Other
48%
Democratic Party
51%
Republican Party
0.3%
Other
63%
Democratic Party
36%
Republican Party
1.3%
Other
48%
Democratic Party
52%
Republican Party
0.1%
Other
59%
Democratic Party
41%
Republican Party
0.9%
Other
52%
Democratic Party
48%
Republican Party
0.1%
Other
64%
Democratic Party
35%
Republican Party
1%
Other
22%
Democratic Party
78%
Republican Party
0.3%
Other
66%
Democratic Party
31%
Republican Party
2%
Other
89%
Democratic Party
11%
Republican Party
0.2%
Other
40%
Democratic Party
58%
Republican Party
2%
Other
44%
Democratic Party
56%
Republican Party
0.3%
Other

Gov Shutdown🛑

24%
Steve Scalise (current Republican Majority Leader, previous Speaker-Elect)
13%
Other
9%
Elise Stefanik (Republican Conference Chairman)
8%
Byron Donalds (Previous Speaker contender)
70%
CR passes with more Democratic votes
4%
CR passes with more Republican votes
27%
No CR passes by March 8 (end of day ET)
0.6%
2023
53%
2024
17%
2025
6%
2026

Jan 6th Trial👨‍⚖️

45%
GUILTY: Convicted / Guilty Plea / etc before November 5th
42%
UNRESOLVED: Trial begun and ongoing, hung jury and new trial, etc through November 5th
9%
NOT GUILTY: Acquitted / Charged Dropped / etc before November 5th
3%
Other
52%
SCOTUS denies Trump's requested stay before March 1st
39%
SCOTUS announces no decision on Trump's requested stay before March 1st
7%
SCOTUS grants Trump's requested stay before March 1st
2%
Other
23%
Yes/Yes: Trump will be convicted of a felony before the election, and will win the election
38%
Yes/No: Trump will be convicted of a felony before the election, and will not win the election
29%
No/Yes: Trump will not be convicted of a felony before the election, and will win the election
10%
No/No: Trump will not be convicted of a felony before the election, and will not win the election
36%
Conspiracy to defraud the United States
47%
Conspiracy to obstruct an official proceeding
53%
Obstruction of and attempt to obstruct an official proceeding
32%
Conspiracy against rights

Trump VP🥈

17%
Tim Scott (SC Senator )
17%
Kristi Noem (SD Governor)
13%
Elise Stefanik (NY Congresswoman)
12%
Vivek Ramaswamy (Entrepreneur)
20%
6 feet or taller
49%
Former or current congressperson
61%
Former or current governor
62%
Woman
59%
One of the current three favorites: Stefanik, Noem, or Scott
59%
One of the rumored short list members: Vance, Huckabee-Sanders, Scott, or Stefanik
22%
One of his would-be rivals: Scott, Desantis, Haley, or Vivek
22%
One of the Governors: Noem or Huckabee-Sanders
78%
Elise Stefanik (Chair of the House Republican Conference)
74%
Kristi Noem (Governor of South Dakota)
70%
Tim Scott (Senator from South Carolina)
49%
Sarah Huckabee Sanders (Governer of Arkansas)
16%
Kristi Noem